Real Estate Information | Let us create a 3d Digital eBook for you! DigyCat.com |
|
Real Estate Bubble: Fact or Fiction?
The real estate market buzz across the country these days revolves around the anticipated and much feared "bubble". The implication is that once burst, prices will spiral downward taking with them the major assets of those foolish enough to buy at a time when disaster looms large. It could happen. However, it would take a major cataclysm in the underlying financial underpinnings of the global economy. Granted, any significant blow to world confidence in the fundamentals of the U.S. economy could easily check the flow of overseas investment into the long-term securities markets. The result would likely be a sudden spike in mortgage interest rates. This most likely would spell the end of the present bull market in real estate. The profits of doom, meanwhile predict just such a meltdown, citing the trade deficit, the national debt and the debt future generations will owe to Entitlement, to name a few. This too could happen. No one knows for sure. We are in uncharted economic waters, where past experience or interpolations from other countries' issues do not necessarily apply. (see Greenspan's Conundrum: http://www.mises.org/story/1859) But what if it happens? In the worst case scenario, assets such as real estate would be the last resource to vanish-not the first--largely because of widespread laws to prevent foreclosure except in extreme cases. Most likely, we would simply have reached another top in the normal real estate cycle, not unlike any of the 21 cycles that have occurred since 1978. Busts do not usually follow booms. In only 17% of the cycles noted above did a real estate downturn follow on the heals of a boom-and these typically in areas that had experience significant distresses to the local economy. (see FDIC http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/fyi/2005/050205fyi.html) Safe Prediction: In the years since I was first licensed as a Realtor® I have experienced all 21 of the full cycles noted above. When I was a new license I too anticipated "The Big One" where the bottom would drop out of the market permanently. Now I know that view is mere paranoia. People are not going to forego living in houses; real property will always have solid value, and the pendulum swings both ways. "Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics", as Mark Twain said. Nowhere is this more evident than the real estate market. Statistics that are used to show loss of value mostly show reductions in the number of sales. Let me explain: while the mean average or the medium sales price of all home sold in a given period fairly accurately represent rises in home prices in an seller's market they do not, paradoxically, reflect the apparent drop in prices experienced in buyers market. The unassailable law of Supply and Demand states that as prices rise fewer and fewer people can afford to buy. This creates a market glut. When a glut occurs sellers must contend with greater competition from other sellers. Those that lower their price sell. Those that do not or cannot must stay. (This has yet to happen. see David Lereah of National Association of Realtors: http://www.realtor.org/Research.nsf/Pages/housingoverview?OpenDocument) The result on market statistics, however, is that the dollar amount of those homes that do sell by lowering their price effect a statistical drop in the apparent overall market prices. The news that prices appear to be falling further exasperates the situation as buyers feel the need to protect themselves from the perceived downward trend by only investing in properties that are seen as solid bargains. Again, only those that choose to sell or must sell make up the ever downwards statistical spiral. What is not figured in the averages are the majority of homes that do not sell because their owners are not desperate enough to take what they can get. Their value remains intact. What falls is not value but volume. Especially in today's market where 100% or greater loans are common, few homeowners will choose to bring money to the closing to table to make up the shortfall between what they owe and what they can sell for at that point in the cycle-in essence paying someone to take their home. And though this scenario may cause hardship, it also has the effect of limiting the number of homes on the market, which acts as a downward buffer to the bottom actually falling out, though statistics may even indicate a continued downward trend. If it doesn't stop raining it will be the first time. I tell my buyers to only buy if they feel confident that they can remain in the home at least seven years to ride out (in comfort) the coming down cycle. If, during this time, they are forced to sell (usually because of an employment or domestic issue) they could get hurt. I tell my sellers not to try to predict the exact market top and to watch the rate of foreign investment for signs of weakness that may signal a lack of confidence in the U.S. economy and the rise in home mortgage interest rates that will likely turn the market. No one knows when and if this will occur. But the market will eventually turn. At least it always has. What to do now: Those that buy wisely, and who can choose the point in the natural cycle to sell, are far more likely to make money than in most other forms of investment. All this while enjoying the fruits of homeownership. In addition, they will benefit from major tax advantages and the eventual equity value of their home, which will not always rise astronomically but will always rise in the long run. Dennis Maier
MORE RESOURCES: |
RELATED ARTICLES
Real Estate Investing - House Problems Houses can have lots of problemsReal estate investing requires expertise in recognizing these problems and the costs for repair.Sometimes you stumble onto a jewel investment by discovering a house where mom was an excellent housekeeper, and all that's necessary is minor cleanup of the premises to prepare for selling. Buying and Selling Real Estate in Florida Florida is known as the "Sun Shine" state, and the reason is clear. People move to Florida for many reasons, but most that move there stay there. Purchase Your First Home with Confidence If you are making the transition from renter to homeowner, you're not alone. In 2004, 40 percent of homebuyers were purchasing for the first time, according to "The 2004 National Association of REALTORS® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. Maui Realtors: What You Need To Know Maui is a great place for families of any size. However, before you plan a move to Maui and contact those Maui Realtors, there are some considerations that you should take care of. Rehab Foreclosed Houses the Right Way and Keep All the Profits! I've been teaching people how to buy foreclosure properties for a long time.And we all make the biggest profits on the deals that we rehab the right way. How Long Your Mortgage Runs Determines How Much You Pay The first thing most of us think about when the time comes to take out a mortgage on a new home is the interest rate.That's both perfectly natural and very sensible. Youre Not Paranoid: The House Really Hates You If you've just bought a house, you may be able to relate to a fascinating essay in Maya Angelou's book, Even the Stars Look Lonesome.When Ms. How to Prequalify a Buyer When You Sell Your Home By Owner One questions many "for sale by owner" sellers ask is "how can I determine if a potential buyer can afford to buy my house?" In the real estate industry this is referred to as "pre-qualifying" a buyer. You might think this is a complex process but in reality it is actually quite simple and only involves a little math. Prepare Your House for a Successful Sale Whether you list with an agent or sell on your own, you can ensure a quick sale by proactively preparing your house to be a highly marketable and attractive commodity.Paradigm ShiftDon't wait for the sold sign to get started with packing. Home Equity Loans - Beware of Appraisal Fraud A new report by the independent Demos group has revealed what may not be a surprise to many people - corruption is rampant in the home appraisal industry. The bust in the dot-com market of some five years ago has left would-be lenders with a surplus of cash to lend. Real Estate Investors - Red Alert How's the real estate marketing doing? Is the huge jump in home prices that is evident in some areas symptoms of a value bubble? Good questions, yes?Two things to keep in mind when surveying the market:1. All real estate is local,2. Negative Gearing - It's Not to Your Benefit! The concept of negative gearing has been originally developed to encourage real estate investment in Australia by allowing any income losses from property investment to be deductible from other income as a tax benefit. This means that the taxable income of the owner will be reduced after the deduction and therefore the total tax payable is also reduced. Branded Email in the Real Estate Industry Branded Email in the Real Estate IndustryYou're in the real estate industry, and that means you've got a brand. Chances are, you've spent quite a bit of money to build that brand, whether it's through franchising fees, marketing, websites, business cards, other print materials, advertising, yard signs, and/or through other means. Why Are Mortgage Notes Discounted Anyway? When real estate note brokers purchase partially paid notes, they pay the note holder a discounted price after factoring in the time value of money, the payer history, and property condition.If there is still a significant period of time left for the payer to make payments, the future payments are not worth the same amount in current dollars. Finding The Perfect Maui Home For Sale If you are thinking of relocating to Maui, this articlewill hopefully guide you to making a positive decision whenthinking of buying a home there. Hopefully, by the end youwill be one step closer to finding a Maui home for sale,and being able to purchase it. Kings Bay Georgia Real Estate - An Amusing Tale About a Real Estate Agent This story is true and not meant to hurt anyone, but the more that I think about what happened, the more it makes me laugh. I hope that you not only get a chuckle from it as I did, but take your time and look for a professional real estate agent. Buying Property in Bulgaria : How to Avoid Making A Bad Investment Where is it possible to buy a property on your credit card? Bulgaria, of course! With thousands of potential property buyers seduced by Bulgaria's bargain property prices, the temptation is to think that making a solid return is a no-brainer! Searching the Internet, dozens of articles and property websites boast about the 100% capital growth that can be achieved on Bulgarian property investments in the space of 12 months.For first time investors with small budgets looking for a step onto the property ladder, this seems like an opportunity almost too good to be true! The result is that thousands of novice speculators and second homebuyers are flocking to Bulgaria to cash in on the investment opportunities it offers. On the Crossing of Continents Cyprus is situated in the north-east Mediterranean on the crossing of three continents - Europe, Asia and Africa. This strategic location ensured development of the island as an international business center with high-quality service, vast infrastructures and great deal of entertainment facilities. Is An Old Home for You? - The Pros If you prefer a home that is unique and has character, you probably are giving some thought to buying an older home. Before buying, it's a good idea to carefully evaluate the pros and cons of owning the home. Home Sellers Warning for Young Families If you're thinking about selling your home and moving up, do your homework before offering your home for sale. Read the following story to see what can happen to home sellers who don't do their math. |
List4Sale Domain Is For Sale - $10,000 For Enquiries eMail Us © www.List4Sale.biz 2012 |